Seizing the Reconstruction Dividend: Strategic Pathways for Slovakia in Ukraine’s (Post)War Economy
Vladyslav BATO – Miguel VARELA – Ján HRINKO – Elena KAŠŤÁKOVÁ – Rui CALDEIRA
https://doi.org/10.18267/pr.2026.vol.2587.2
Abstract: The Russian invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally disrupted Eastern European trade dynamics while simultaneously creating new opportunities for EU exporters in Ukraine’s emerging reconstruction market. This study explores Slovakia’s untapped export potential in Ukraine’s post-war economy, addressing a notable gap in research that mainly focuses on Ukraine’s exports to the EU rather than the reverse direction. The specific research objective is to identify and quantify sector-level export opportunities for Slovak firms using a two-stage methodology combining Trade Potential and Export Gap analysis at the HS-6 product level for the period 2014–2023, drawing on data from ITC Trade Map and UN Comtrade. The analysis identifies over USD 500 million in unrealized opportunities across key sectors — automotive components, industrial machinery, electrical equipment, and consumer goods. Early strategic engagement, localized production, ESG-aligned offerings, and active participation in donor-funded procurement could position Slovakia as a key supplier in Ukraine’s recovery. Policy and managerial recommendations emphasize targeted market entry strategies, logistics innovation, and export promotion instruments tailored to reconstruction-driven demand.
Keywords: trade potential, export gap, comparative advantage, Slovakia, EU, Ukraine
JEL Classification codes: F14, F15, O24
Fulltext: PDF
Published by: Prague University of Economics and Business, Oeconomica Publishing House
Year of publication: 2026
Online publication date: 20 May 2026
Copyright: Authors of the papers
ISBN 978-80-245-2587-7
ISSN 2453-6113
Pages 22-37