Monte Carlo as a Method for Examining of Business Changes in Tourism in Slovakia
Adrián ČAKANIŠIN – Mária HALENÁROVÁ
https://doi.org/10.53465/CEECBE.2025.9788022552257.50-63
Abstract: The business environment in tourism encompasses a set of factors influencing the establishment, development, and sustainability of businesses in this sector, including economic, legislative, and market conditions. The dynamics of this environment are crucial for the economic stability of the sector. The main objective of this paper is to model the development of business establishments and closures in the tourism sector based on historical data and the influence of selected factors. The data used for this study were obtained from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic upon request. To achieve this objective, correlation and regression analysis were employed to examine relationships between economic variables, while a Monte Carlo simulation was used to predict future business activity trends. The results indicated that there are only moderately statistically significant relationships between economic factors and business establishment or closure. Domestic tourists’ expenditures showed a weak positive correlation with business formation, whereas expenditures on inbound tourism had the opposite effect. The Monte Carlo simulation suggested that, assuming historical trends continue, the number of newly established businesses will stabilize at around 7,500 per year, while the number of closed businesses will be approximately 6,000 per year. Extreme scenarios demonstrated that economic fluctuations could lead to significant deviations, with the pessimistic scenario predicting a higher number of business closures and the optimistic scenario indicating a more favorable sectoral development.
Keywords: Business in Tourism, Dynamics of Business in Tourism, MonteCarlo Method, Slovakia, Development
JEL Classification codes: Z31, Z32
Fulltext: PDF
Published by: Vydavateľstvo EKONÓM, Bratislava University of Economics and Business
Year of publication: 2025
Online publication date: 16 May 2025
Copyright: Author/s of the paper
ISBN 978-80-225-5225-7
ISSN 2453-6113
Pages: 50-63